TOP CARD · the chase
Featured card in pool
$4,434
the advertised prize you’re chasing
Observed EV+EV but top-heavy
$212.73
95% CI $85–$341 · Renaiss states $155
Median pull
$71
P(profit)
37%
Best pull
$1,485
Worst pull
$40
Observed EV vs Renaiss’ stated EV
observed mean stated EV
Illustrative trend around the current values — not a real time series.
Value distribution (× rip)
<0.25×
0.25–0.5×
0.5–1×
1–2×
2–5×
5×+
Observed odds by tier
bloom
37%$480.36
thorn
63%$57.79
Last 30 pulls — sorted by value
bloom9.9×
$1,485
bloom9.9×
$1,485
bloom1.8×
$266
bloom1.8×
$266
bloom1.8×
$266
bloom1.8×
$266
bloom1.8×
$266
bloom1.8×
$266
bloom1.8×
$266
bloom1.6×
$240
bloom1.4×
$212
thorn0.5×
$74
thorn0.5×
$73
thorn0.5×
$71
thorn0.5×
$71
thorn0.5×
$71
thorn0.5×
$71
thorn0.5×
$70
thorn0.4×
$60
thorn0.4×
$60
thorn0.4×
$59
thorn0.4×
$53
thorn0.3×
$52
thorn0.3×
$52
thorn0.3×
$52
thorn0.3×
$49
thorn0.3×
$40
thorn0.3×
$40
thorn0.3×
$40
thorn0.3×
$40
Historical snapshot — this is a perpetual pool, so these exact cards may have rotated out. Estimates, not verified facts.