INDEPENDENT · Not affiliated with Renaiss · estimates only

Know your rip before you rip

Renaiss gacha packs advertise only the top prize. Tilik shows the realistic expected value, the odds, and an honest verdict — cross-checked against independent data — so you can decide.

Mewtwo & Mew Gx
Umbreon Ex
Gengar Vmax
Observed EV · OMEGA
$60.57
+EV but top-heavy
P(pull > rip)
43%
Median pull
$45

*EV is built on Renaiss’ own FMV — Tilik cross-checks it against an independent index below.

Renaiss CLI·Renaiss OS Index·BNB Chain·PSA / CGC / BGS·Monte Carlo
Ripping blind
  • You see only the top prize
  • No expected value, no odds
  • No idea if you're +EV or −EV
  • No independent price check
Ripping with Tilik
  • Realistic EV from the last 30 pulls
  • Odds by tier + P(profit) + median
  • An honest verdict (mean and skew)
  • Independent cross-check per card
Pack transparency

See the EV before you rip

Gengar Vmax
OMEGA
+EV but top-heavy
Observed mean EV (last 30 pulls)
$60.57
95% CI $22$100 · Renaiss states $52
Rip price
$48
Median pull
$45
P(profit)
43%
View full breakdown →
Value of the last 30 pulls (× rip)
<0.25×
0.25–0.5×
0.5–1×
1–2×
2–5×
5×+
lossprofitchase
Observed odds by tier
S
3%$635.10
C
97%$40.76
Independent cross-check

Is that FMV even real?

Every pack EV is built on Renaiss’ own FMV. Tilik checks that FMV against an independent, sale-based estimate from the Renaiss OS Index — three price signals, you decide.

  • Ask vs Renaiss FMV vs independent estimate
  • On-chain provenance linked to BscScan
  • Check any PSA / CGC / BGS cert — or a photo
Open the scanner →
PSA 9 Mint 2022 Pokemon Japanese S
PSA 9 Mint · PSA82643863
▲ FMV above independent
Ask$102.00
Renaiss FMV$40.00
Independent$16.62
▼ 18.7%confidence: low
How it works

Two data sources, pure math

1
Renaiss CLI

Rip price, stated EV, featured card, the last 30 real pulls, and marketplace listings — read from the official CLI.

2
Renaiss OS Index

Independent, sale-based valuations by grading cert (and by photo). Every number attributed.

3
Pure EV + Monte Carlo

Empirical EV, odds, an honest verdict, and a bootstrap P&L simulator — all transparent, all labeled estimates.

FAQ

Honest answers

Is this against Renaiss?

No. Transparent gacha builds trust — like a casino publishing its RTP. Tilik is decision-support for collectors, not a watchdog.

Are these guaranteed odds?

No. EV and odds are empirical estimates from a small sample (30 pulls) — not the true draw probabilities, which Renaiss doesn't publish.

Why is the average misleading?

Gacha value is skewed: a pack's mean can beat the rip while most pulls still lose. That's why we show P(profit) and the median, and flag "top-heavy."

Where do prices come from?

The Renaiss CLI and the Renaiss OS Index (beta). Independent valuations are credited to the Index. All figures are estimates, not financial advice.

Limitations — read these
Small sample

EV is from the last 30 pulls — a wide confidence interval, not a guarantee.

Rate limits

The Index public tier is 10/day; cross-check data is a cached sample.

Pool rotation

Packs are perpetual — pulled cards rotate out, so we can't re-price the exact cards inside a pack.

Beta data

CLI + Index are beta and may be incomplete or delayed. Estimates, not verified facts. Not financial advice.

Inspect before you rip.

Open the tool, pick a pack, and see the numbers Renaiss doesn’t show you.